The British magazine The Economist has revealed the potentially catastrophic consequences of closing the Strait of Hormuz for global energy markets, as shipping traffic has nearly come to a halt since the start of the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran.
According to the report, around 15 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined petroleum products are now effectively trapped in the Gulf. Prior to the conflict, the strait handled the transit of roughly 14 million barrels of crude oil per day—about 14% of global production—in addition to 4 million barrels of refined petroleum products.
Although U.S. President Donald Trump announced on March 9 that the military operation dubbed “Epic Rage” had been completed very successfully and claimed that Iran’s military capabilities had been eliminated, the magazine warned that ending the war is not solely in Washington’s hands. Oil markets, it said, remain under severe tension.
Key figures highlighting the scale of the crisis:
- Brent crude prices fell by 8% on March 10, reaching $91 per barrel.
- The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation allocated $20 billion to insure and protect ships, but JPMorgan estimates the real requirement could reach $352 billion.
- War-risk insurance premiums have surged to 1–2% of ship values, roughly 3–6 times higher than pre-war levels.
- Around 320 oil tankers are currently stranded in the Gulf, whereas before the war more than 50 tankers passed through the strait daily.
The analysis suggests that if the disruption continues, it could have severe and lasting impacts on global oil supply chains and energy prices.
